Saturday, August 24, 2019

Oil Revenue

Oil Revenue

According to Ghana’s 2016 budget total oil revenue from January to September 2015, amounted to GH¢1,260.2 million, against a target of GH¢1,353.7 million.

For the year as a whole, total oil revenue is estimated at GH¢1,740.1 million, 1.5 percent lower than the revised budget estimate.

Between January and September 2015, GNPC lifted five parcels of crude oil (i.e. the 25th–29th liftings) on behalf of the State.

This involved 4,781,972 barrels of oil, down from 4,824,715 barrels in the corresponding period in 2014. Receipts from crude oil liftings for the first nine months of 2015, which accrued from the 23rd and 24th liftings (lifted in December 2014) to the 28th lifting, was US$329.5 million (GH¢1,202.0 million).

This involved 5,741,429 barrels and excludes the proceeds from the 29th lifting, which although was undertaken on 9th September 2015, the proceeds were received in October 2015.

Total petroleum receipts (i.e. proceeds from Jubilee liftings and other petroleum receipts) as at the end of the third quarter of 2015 was US$341.50 million (GH¢1,243.65 million).

Source: tradingeconomics.com
Source: tradingeconomics.com

This compares unfavorably with the January-September 2014 figure of US$780.07 million (GH¢2,139.12 million).

Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Finance

Allocation of 2015 Petroleum Receipts

gas 2

Source: Ministry Finance
Source: Ministry Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance

According to the 2016 budge,t the 7-year moving average BR crude oil prices for 2017 and 2018 are projected to be US$79.2207 and US$72.5302 per barrel, respectively.

However, market  forecasts suggest that these prices may not be attained.

The Finance Ministry in 2015 adopted the WEO prices of US$58.42 per barrel and US$62.54 per barrel for 2017 and 2018, respectively.

These figures are also expected to be revised as crude price on the world market continues to drop.

The figure is expected to be revised to 45dollars.

Similarly, the BR prices for gas in 2017 and 2018 have been maintained at US$3.0433/MMBtu and US$3.3389/MMBtu, respectively.

Ghana projects its 2017 and 2018 BR outputs at 47,147,479 (129,171 bopd) and 58,648,020 (160,680 bopd) barrels, respectively.

In addition to Jubilee Field output, the 2016 projection includes a projected output from the TEN Field, while the 2017 output includes projected volumes for both the TEN and SGN Fields.

Gas output is projected to increase from the 2016 BR of 26,664 MMScf to 34,980 MMScf in 2017 and further to 35,640 MMScf in 2018.

In the medium term, petroleum receipts are expected to rise from US$502.10 million in 2016 to US$960.73 million in 2017 and further to US$1,330.02 million in 2018.

Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance