The Institute of Energy Security (IES), has predicted about 5 to 8 percent drop in the prices of fuel at the pumps from Monday, March 16, 2020.
It follows the drop in global crude oil prices as well as the relative stability of the cedi, which are two of the major determinants for the prices of fuel at the pumps.
The IES, among other things, premised its projection on the drop in global crude oil prices which slumped to a region of $30 a barrel as at March 9.
This was triggered by the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Again, the impact of the coronavirus has led to a drop in global demand for crude oil following a slowdown in economic activities in most countries affected by the pandemic.
For the first pricing window spanning Sunday [March 1, 2020] to Sunday [March 15, 2020], a litre of petrol or gasoline sold for GH¢5.36 pesewas.
This translated into GH¢20.29 pesewas for a gallon of petrol at major Oil Marketing Companies.
Also, a litre of diesel or gasoil for the same period sold for GH¢5.38 pesewas at major OMCs, translating into GH¢20.37 pesewas for a gallon of the product.
Per the calculation put forward by the IES, if OMCs reduce their prices by 5 percent, it means a litre of petrol will be selling for 5 cedis 9 pesewas which will translate into 19 cedis 27 pesewas per gallon.
Similarly, a 5 percent reduction in the price of diesel will mean that consumers should be paying 5 cedis 11 pesewas which will cost 19 cedis 34 pesewas for a gallon of diesel.
However, if the reduction is felt at the upper band of 8 percent, then OMCs will shave off 43 pesewas on a litre of petrol to sell at 4 cedis 93 pesewas.
This will lead to 18 cedis 66 pesewas per gallon.
Also, granted the price of a litre of diesel witnesses a reduction of 8 percent, then the current price of 5 cedis 38 pesewas will drop to 4 cedis 95 pesewas.
This will mean consumers will have to pay 18 cedis 74 pesewas for a gallon of the product.
IES’ prediction is quite different from that of the regulator, the National Petroleum Authority, NPA, which has said that per its calculation, prices may go down by 15 %.